TRUMP IS FAILING

But refuses to accept failure

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THE failure of Trump’s increasingly desperate attempts to bully the world with tariffs is becoming clearer day by day.

The 192 countries which Trump tried to impose tariffs on are just refusing to bow to his bullying.

No-one has rushed to ‘kiss my ass’ as Trump predicted. No-one has signed trade deals related to tariffs.

The one deal signed - with Ukraine - is not about tariffs. That deal is actually more proof that Trump has failed. Initially, Trump demanded Ukraine accept $500b in debt for US military aid and give American companies unlimited access to Ukrainian resources, including rare earths. In return Ukraine got nothing - not even a security guarantee.

Naturally, the Ukrainians flatly refused to agree. Why would they? This is the real reason Trump and Vance berated Zelensky before the world’s media, telling Zelansky he had ‘no cards to play’. They were wrong.

Zelensky went straight to Europe and was warmly received by UK PM Starmer, French President Macron and other European leaders, while the leaders of non-EU countries including Australia made it clear they stood with Ukraine.

Trump had to totally revise the draft agreement, making it acceptable to Ukraine. Zelensky won and Trump lost.

These events show global leaders understand Trump’s psychology very well. Bullies must be resisted, not placated.

I discussed this in my previous post, ‘Inside Trump’s Dark Mind’ (see link below), in which actual clinical psychiatrists analysed Trump’s statements and diagnosed him as a malignant narcissist. That means it is a mistake to try to compromise with a malignant narcissist like Trump. Malignant narcissists regard attempts to compromise with them as a sign of weakness and an invitation for them to double down on persecuting the other party. They think they are winning, so they push harder. Anyone who has had to deal with a schoolyard bully knows this is true.

Do not try to compromise. The way to deal with bullies is to firmly set the boundaries of acceptable behaviour and refuse to budge. Just say ‘No’. Don’t discuss, just set the boundaries and demand obedience. If the bully resists, then impose consequences for their behaviour. This is what the world is doing with Trump. Even that super-bully Putin is refusing to bend to Trump.

Consider some examples. Canada and Mexico, who are America’s closest neighbours and have the most to lose, have matched Trump’s tariffs and refused to bow to his demands. Both previous Canadian PM Trudeau and new PM Carney have said the old relationships with the USA are over. Mexico’s President Sheinbaum refused Trump’s demands about sending American troops into Mexico to patrol the border and demanded Trump stop American guns flowing into Mexico.

China has flatly refused to negotiate with Trump, saying there are NO negotiations. Instead, China has almost matched Trump’s tariffs, halted the supply of rare earths to America and is waiting for the damage to strike the American economy because of Trump’s tariffs halting imports from China into America.

China does 10-year plans, revised annually, in intimate detail. More than a decade ago the Chinese leadership decided to aim for global domination of rare earths and to become the leaders in electric vehicles. That forward planning is now paying off. They were ready for Trump’s tariff frenzy and reacted calmly and methodically. No Trump-like overnight thought bubbles there, just deep planning.

Trump announced his tariffs on the USA in early April and it takes over a month for containers to travel from China to America and be distributed internally. Reports say port traffic at Los Angeles and Seattle is rapidly drying up, so the supply of goods is dwindling and the shelves of American shops are starting to go empty. American retailers have had to cancel orders because they could not afford to cop 145% price increases because of Trump’s tariffs. Consumers will not pay such steep price increases.

Meanwhile, a fundamental consequence of Trump’s tariffs is hitting the financing of the US Government’s debt by selling US Treasury bonds. The biggest buyers of those bonds are Japan, China and some Middle Eastern and European governments. Reports say the buyers are reducing their purchases, which is forcing the US Treasury to have to offer higher interest returns to find buyers. If the world goes on a capital strike and refuses to finance the US’s massive government debt, then the US economy will crash.

Take the example of Russia, which is having to offer 16% interest on its government debt to find any buyers, because western sanctions have cut off Russia from the global capital supply. Some reports say Russia is not making any profit on its bonds now. The Russian budget is in deep deficit and there are predictions it could be unable to raise all of the finance needed to keep the government going in 2025.

However, the true picture is hard to discern because Putin has forced private companies to take on large debts for supplying the military equipment needed for the invasion of Ukraine, hiding much of the cost of the war off the Russian government’s budget. What we do know is almost a million Russian soldiers have been killed or injured and most of Russia’s military arsenal is wrecked. Ukraine’s resistance has been phenomenal.

Under Trump, the USA is veering down a similar disastrous path as Putin in Russia. The USA can only finance its debt by attracting foreign capital. but if the investors lose confidence and decide to look for alternatives to the US dollar as the global currency, then the USA will be in big trouble. Already China is encouraging other countries to trade with it in yuan and India is doing deals in its rupee. Brazil and China recently did a big deal in yuan, for example. India will only pay for oil in rupees. If the European Union increases its dealings in the Euro, then the trend will continue. And the Australian $ is already one of the most-traded global currencies.

So, to summarize, Trump’s attempts to bully the world over tariffs are failing. The world is refusing to be bullied. Instead, global leaders are just sitting back waiting for reality to force Trump to retreat. For example, our own PM Albanese was in no hurry to rush off to Washington, before or after his election landslide last weekend. Albanese sent representatives to state Australia’s position that we are only interested in free trade, and then waited.

Interestingly, Albanese said it was Trump who called him on Sunday and they had a positive chat. Albanese, while refusing to discuss the details of their conversation, said he made some points to Trump about Australia’s position on tariffs and AUKUS.

I think we know enough from other government statements to assume Albanese told Trump his tariffs on Australia were unfair and must be cancelled. I also think we can assume Albanese told Trump that Australia insisted America must honour its obligations under AUKUS, particularly our investment in the US submarine-building program, in intelligence-sharing under Five Eyes and in defence co-operation.

And we know from other government statements that Australia is telling the US that Australia has the rare earths that China is refusing to sell to the US, but Australia will only deal with the US over them if Australia is treated with respect.

Albanese has signalled a major effort to boost processing of rare earths in Australia, as part of the Future Made in Australia program, which is also supporting processing of steel and aluminium here and of replacing live cattle exports with Australian abattoirs exporting processed meat. Albanese has also formed a $1 billion interest-free loan program to support Australian exporters to find new markets, and talked particularly about the potential in Indonesia and India. Albanese will make his first overseas trip to Indonesia and both the Indonesian and Indian Presidents were among the first to congratulate Albanese on his election sweep.

So Australia isn’t bowing to Trump’s bullying. We are simply stating our position and insisting on being treated with respect, while also walking away and increasing dealings with other countries. That’s how you treat bullies.

The question now is how long it will take before Trump is forced to admit the reality of his failure and start to treat other countries with respect as partners. If he remains in his parallel universe, fantasising about being Pope or King, then America will slide rapidly deeper in recession, with the falling growth rate accelerating into negativity.

At some point, reality will become undeniable, even for a fantasist like Trump. Meanwhile, how many people, particularly Americans, will suffer? How much harm will be done? How long will it take for the MAGAs to accept they were tricked by a compulsive liar?

We can’t predict the time, but one thing is sure: it will happen, sooner or later. Reality will become undeniable, even for a malignant narcissist like Trump. Bullies usually lose, eventually.