ROGUE 'KING' TRUMP MAY SINK DUTTON

Australian elections affected by US chaos

WILL ‘KING’ TRUMP GOING ROGUE SINK DUTTON?

Trump’s chaos might scare Australians into re-electing the Albanese Government.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese (right) and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

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CONTENTS:

• · Trump goes rogue

• · What are the main issues in Australia?

• · Re-elected Labor government most likely result

• · Dutton’s ‘policy vacuum’

• · What about the ‘Trump factor’?

• · Albanese talks tougher

• · Dutton abandons bipartisanship

• · Is Dutton really like Trump?

• · Will Dutton lose because of Trump?

• · Abandoning his constituents

• · Support for Ukraine

• · Immigration scare-mongering

• · Dutton’s immigration history

• · Caravan conspiracy

• · Exaggerated antisemitism

• · What will happen?

TRUMP GOES ROGUE

TRUMP has gone rogue, so will that affect the results of Australia’s May 3 federal elections?

Normally it would be unthinkable for the behaviour of an American President to affect an Australian election, but Trump is not normal.

A big orange Trump-shaped cloud is complicating what should have been a straight-forward process.

Will we see the curious situation of how Australians react to Trump’s behaviour determining the futures of both Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and Opposition Leader Peter Dutton?

This has already happened in Canada, which also has elections coming soon, and has swung strongly away from Trump’s USA. Europe, Mexico, Greenland, Panama and others have all backed away from Trumps’ USA. The only happiness is in Putin’s Russia, which hopes Trump will abandon Ukraine to be conquered.

Australia is less threatened by Trump’s behaviour because the US is only a minor trade market for us, but the threat could increase, particularly if another round of tariffs hits us on April 2, as Trump threatens.

American pharmaceutical companies are lobbying Trump to impose tariffs on $2 billion of Australian-made medicines, including vaccines, exported to America, because Australia limits the prices foreign companies can charge to sell medicines in Australia under the Pharmaceutical Benefits Scheme. The American companies want to be free to charge sick Australians global prices for medicines.

Both Albanese and Dutton have rejected any changes to the PBS. But if Trump tariffs our pharmaceutical exports, as he did our steel and aluminium, that could increase the negative opinion most Aussies already have towards Trump and taint Dutton by association.

Dutton’s policies - sacking 41,000 public servants, favouring nuclear energy and gas rather than renewables, slashing immigration - are very similar to Trump’s actions since becoming President.

Albanese had intended to announce the date of the federal elections in early March, but then Cyclone Alfred threatened the East Coast and the announcement was delayed until today.

The delay could actually benefit Albanese if it gives his government more time to announce vote-winning policies and accuse Dutton of being a clone of Trump.

Dutton is closely identified with the USA. He was a senior Minister in the previous Morrison Government which rejected French submarines, including the option of French nuclear-powered submarines, to favour a hugely-expensive $360 billion, 30-year AUKUS deal to invest in the US submarine program and receive used Virginia class subs before building the new British Astute class subs, with their American technology, in Australia.

The Morrison government also bought Lockheed’s F-35 fighters and American helicopters and long-range drones. Last month Dutton proposed increasing the number of Australian F-35s from 72 to 100.

There are concerns America could control our F-35s, submarines and intelligence gathering at the Pine Gap base near Alice Springs.

Suddenly, the free world was walking away from the USA at the same time as Dutton wanted to increase our ties with the US military and opposed sending peacekeepers to Ukraine. It looked bad.

Trump humiliated Ukraine’s Zelensky and cut off military and intelligence support for Ukraine. Russia’s Putin was pleased, but the free world saw this as proof Trump’s America was an unreliable ally and began reviewing military ties with the USA.

Portugal cancelled its F-35 order. Canada announced it was reviewing its F-35 deal and talking to other manufacturers, and also agreed to leapfrog the USA to buy $6.5 billion of Australian Jindalee over the horizon radar to monitor its Arctic North against Russian ships. Germany announced a huge $800 billion investment in European arms.

What are the main issues in Australia?

This wasn’t supposed to be an election about defence. Polls say cost of living is the top issue for most voters, followed by housing affordability and healthcare.

Economic trends have turned to favour the Albanese Government. Interest rates are falling and inflation is down from 6% under the previous Morrison Government to 2.4%.

Healthcare is the next key issue and Albanese has announced an $8 billion boost to the popular Medicare so 90% of consultations will soon be bulk-billed, plus PBS scripts will be capped at $25 despite protests from American pharmaceutical companies against the government limiting their charges for common medicines.

The polls say the Albanese Labor Government has recently retaken a narrow lead in two-party preferred terms, after lagging behind late last year.

https://www.aeforecasts.com/forecast/2025fed/nowcast/

This polling shift has happened despite most mainstream media favouring Dutton’s Opposition by repeatedly claiming Albanese is struggling, even though Albanese has been a successful and effective PM who has done the hard work of governing, negotiating with the states over many reforms including aged care, education and energy infrastructure.

It is Dutton who has floundered about, failing to offer effective policy alternatives for the main issues concerning the public, and instead resorting to scare-mongering and half-baked ‘thought bubbles’ like tax-free business lunches.

As a former politician once told me, ‘Being in Opposition is the easiest job in the world. No-one cares what you say or do.’

Re-elected Labor government most likely result

The most likely result is either a narrow Labor win or a Labor minority Government supported by the Greens and Independents, say the polls.

Greens Leader Adam Bandt has said his party is open to an agreement with the Albanese Government, similar to the one under the previous Gillard Labor-Greens Government, which passed more legislation than the Morrison Government. Independents say they would support an Albanese Government on supply and confidence votes, but would consider other issues on their merits.

Both the Greens and Independents have rejected any idea of supporting a Dutton Liberal-National Government. The polls suggest it is unlikely the LNP could win enough seats to have a majority in the House of Representatives and form its own government.

The Albanese government now has the chance to cement it’s lead with the federal Budget, announced by Treasurer Jim Chalmers on Tuesday, March 25. Details include:

• Permanently cutting the minimum income tax rate from 16% to 14% by 2027, saving taxpayers $17b, following the previous Stage 3 tax cuts, taking the average total cut to about $50 a week or $2548 annually.

• A $150 subsidy for every electricity bill, on top of previous subsidies.

• Banning non-compete clauses to boost productivity by encouraging people to shift to better jobs.

• $8.5 billion to increase Medicare bulk-billing to 90% of GP visits, $644 million for 50 new urgent care clinics, increasing the threshold at which the Medicare levy is paid, reducing the price of PBS medicines to $25 a script and $573m for women’s health.

• Inflation is predicted to be under 3% while economic growth is predicted to rise from 1.5% in 2024-25 to 2.7% by 2028-29, wage growth to average 3% and unemployment to remain about 4.25%.

• The budget deficit is predicted to be $27.6 billion in 2024-25, peaking at $42.1 billion in 2025-26 and falling to $36.9 billion in 2027-28. Revenue is predicted to rise about $8 billion this year while savings on previously-predicted spending total about $27 billion.

• Cutting HECS-HELP student debts by 20%.

• $9.2 billion for social and affordable housing. Building 1.2 million homes.

• Three days of subsidised childcare and $1 billion to build more childcare centres.

• Boosting defence from 2% to 2.4% of GDP.

• Building 10,000 kilometres of electricity transmission routes to connect more energy sources to the grid.

• Raising wages for aged care workers.

• Lifting federal funding for public schools from 20% to 25%, with states paying the balance.

• $11.6 billion in disaster support, including $1.2 billion caused by Cyclone Alfred.

• $3 billion in production credits to support ‘green’ aluminium and steel manufacture.

• $2.4 billion to support the Whyalla steelworks until it finds a buyer.

• $80 million to keep struggling airline REX flying to regional routes while a new owner is sought.

Dutton’s ‘policy vacuum’

Dutton immediately voted against the tax cut in parliament and vowed to reverse it if he wins government, which was either brave or foolhardy, since taxpayers always want lower taxes. He instead promised to halve the fuel excise by 25 cents a litre for one year at a cost of $6 billion.

In his budget reply speech on Thursday Dutton announced:

• Temporarily halving the fuel excise by 25 cents a litre for 12 months.

• Repealing the tax cuts announced in the Albanese Government’s Budget, which passed parliament on Friday.

• A national gas plan to reserve 10-20% of the East Coast gas demand from export and $1 billion to increase gas pipeline and storage capacity.

• $400 million for youth mental health.

• A 25% cut to permanent migration (from 185,000 to 140,000).

• $12,000 apprentice grants and a target of 400,-0-00 apprentices and trainees.

• Scrapping the $20 billion Rewiring the Nation fund to modernise the electricity grid, the $10 billion Housing Australia Future Fund and production tax credits under the Future Made in Australia plan.

• Retrenching 41,000 Canberra public servants to save $7 billion.

Dutton’s proposal to build eight government-owned nuclear power stations would take at least 20 years, be far more expensive (estimated at $331-600 billion) than any other energy option, and produce electricity so expensive it would have to be subsidised by taxpayers to be affordable for consumers.

Energy experts reject it and private investors are not interested. Nuclear energy is illegal in Australia and it is unlikely the Liberal-Nationals could get the parliament to vote to reverse the ban, plus all state governments, including Liberals, oppose legalising it in their states.

His proposal to build 500,000 homes is less than half the Albanese Government’s existing program for 1.2 million homes over five years, so it would result in less housing, not more.

Dutton has offered a return to the cuts which failed under the Morrison Government and led to the current situation. The Morrison government was obsessed with supporting private investors through first-home buyers grants while cutting funding for public housing. That resulted in a lack of supply, which caused costs and rents to rise. People with a first home buyers grant had more money to bid to buy houses, leapfrogging others without the extra grant funds and pushing up prices.

Dutton’s proposal to cut 41,000 federal government jobs and replace them with private contractors, as the Morrison government did, resulted in a 300,000 backlog in unprocessed applications for pensions and other government payments. The Albanese government claims to have saved about $2 billion by replacing contractors with new staff to slash the backlog.

What about the ‘Trump factor’?

While about two-thirds of Australians appear to have a negative view of Trump, there is a core extreme Liberal-National Party block who are positive about Trump and would like to see parts of Trump’s agenda happen in Australia.

Estimates vary, but there may be 20-30% support for Trump, up to 50% opposition and the remainder may be undecided. The numbers are likely to firm as the election draws closer and people have to choose. Will the undecideds link Dutton to Trump and swing against the LNP? Will the Albanese Government benefit if Australians are repelled by Trump and link Dutton to him? Only time will tell.

Polls had Dutton close to Albanese before Trump started closing government departments and sacking public servants, hit Australia with tariffs on steel and aluminium imports and berated Ukrainian President Zelensky while siding with Russia’s dictator Putin. If Trump hits Australia with more tariffs, more people will be repelled by his behaviour.

Suddenly, Australians have been forced to realise that Trump’s behaviour could actually affect Australia, rather than just being like one of those awful American reality television shows.

Albanese talks tougher

Albanese, whose language had been very restrained ahead of the tariff denial, then upped the tone to call the decision ‘entirely unjustified’, ‘not a friendly act’ and ‘a poor way to treat a friend’. Industry Minister Ed Husic called the tariffs ‘a dog act’.

Albanese said Australia would not retaliate with its own tariffs as that would raise the cost of living for Australians and described America’s tariffs on imports as an act of ‘economic self-harm’ for America.

Dutton abandons bipartisanship

Dutton claimed, without obvious justification, that Albanese had failed, even though Trump did not exempt any country from the tariffs. Dutton also claimed he could have caused Trump to exempt Australia, but that claim was met with scorn, even from Liberals. Dutton also said, ‘… the United States is still, and must always be, our most important partner.’

Foreign Minister Wong said Dutton was quick to go political, but slow to stand up for Australian jobs and workers. The former chief of the Australian defence forces, Admiral Chris Barrie, said ‘vandals in the White House’ were no longer reliable allies of Australia and the AUKUS submarine deal with the US should be reassessed.

Greens leader Adam Bandt went further and said Australia should scrap the $368 billion AUKUS deal and explore other relationships because Trump was ‘very dangerous’ and could not be trusted to honour the US side of the agreement.

‘We should get out of AUKUS, now is not the time to be hitching Australia’s wagon to Donald Trump – it puts Australia at risk and it is billions of dollars being spent on submarines that might never arrive,’ Bandt said.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2025-03-16/greens-adam-bandt-aukus-insiders/105057580

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